Snapshots

United States

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

China

Ukraine

Russia

A graph of the ruble exchange rate against the background of the Russian flag and paper banknotes. 

Economics

Politics

A new U.S. sanctions package on Russia raises risks of secondary sanctions for financial institutions around the world, leading more companies to cut off ties to Russian entities.

With a New Sanctions Package, the U.S. Squeezes Russian Trade

Assessments

Iran

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Italy

Voters on June 6 in The Hague, the first day of the election for the European Parliament. In a vote that will shape the political direction and strategic priorities of the bloc for the next five years, elections for the European Parliament run from June 6-9.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: BRICS Foreign Ministers Meet, European Parliamentary Elections

Global Elections

Media

Taiwan

Podcasts

How is China reacting to President William Lai's inauguration?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Short-term China-Taiwan Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tunisia

Supporters of Tunisian President Kais Saied participate in a rally rejecting foreign interference in the country's internal affairs in Tunis, Tunisia, on May 19, 2024. 

After his expected reelection in late 2024, Saied will likely continue to consolidate power and crack down on dissent, but he'll remain constrained by Tunisia's powerful labor unions and fears of stoking unrest.

Tunisia's Authoritarian Slide Under President Saied Looks Set to Continue

Cyber

What steps should companies take to keep up with digital advancements and changing tech regulations?

RANE Insights: How Organizations Can Survive and Thrive in the Digital Era

Europe

A stock photo shows euro banknotes.

While extensive reforms over the past 15 years have made the euro area much more resilient, further reforms are needed to guard the currency zone against future shocks.

The Eurozone Has Come a Long Way Since the 2009 Debt Crisis, but Risks Remain

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 6, 2024

United Kingdom

The Labour Party is expected to comfortably win the July 4 general election, ending 14 years of Conservative Party rule. But a hung parliament where no party secures a majority cannot be ruled out.

2024 Elections: The United Kingdom

India

Supporters of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) celebrate vote counting results for India's general election in Bengaluru on June 4, 2024. 

Results from India's general election indicate Modi's party will remain in power, but will fall short of an outright majority, forcing the BJP to rely on parties within its ruling coalition to govern.

India's BJP Clinches Another Term, but With a Weaker Majority

The June 28 presidential election will likely yield another hard-liner, but there's a chance Iran's Guardian Council will open the race up to more moderate candidates who, if elected, may seek to improve ties with the West. 

2024 Elections: Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

South Africa

South African President and leader of the African National Congress (ANC) Cyril Ramaphosa (center) delivers his remarks after the official announcement of the results of South Africa's general election at the Gallagher Convention Centre in Midrand, on June 2, 2024. 

To secure a parliamentary majority, President Ramaphosa appears likely to seek an agreement with the center-right Democratic Alliance party, which would raise investor confidence but also risk triggering violent unrest.

What's Next for South Africa Following the ANC's Historic Electoral Defeat

Latest

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf addresses the media after submitting his candidacy for the country's presidential election on June 3, 2024.

The approval of several hard-liners and the disqualification of influential moderates ensure that the June 28 presidential election will yield few changes to the country's foreign and domestic policies.

Iran's Approved Presidential Candidates Portend a Continuation of the Status Quo

The flags of EU countries are seen outside the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

Moderate parties will likely repeat their alliance in the supranational legislature and elect a similar European Commission, guaranteeing a high degree of EU policy continuity in the years ahead. 

Despite Far-Right Gains, Centrists Retain Control of the EU Parliament

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Ghana

Kenya

Malawi

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) speaks as Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani (L), chair of the African Union, listens during a joint press conference following the 2024 Korea-Africa Summit in Goyang, South Korea, on June 4, 2024.

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

A recent summit highlights South Korea's commitment to expanding its role in Africa as Yoon looks to strengthen his country's technological future and geopolitical influence.

In South Korea, Yoon's Desire for Supply Chains and Prestige Points to Africa

France

The National Assembly on June 10 in Paris. French President Emmanuel Macron on June 9 announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and a legislative election June 30, with a second round on July 7.

The most likely outcome of the vote is prolonged policy paralysis either through a hung parliament or through complex cohabitation between a president and prime minister from different parties. 

French Early Legislative Elections Risk Policy Paralysis

Bolivia

Former Bolivian President Evo Morales (2nd from left) participates in the 10th congress of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party on Oct. 4, 2023. 

The dispute over who will be the ruling party's 2025 presidential candidate is unlikely to ease anytime soon, portending more political gridlock, economic uncertainty and violent unrest.

A Rift at the Helm of Bolivia's Government Paves the Way for More Instability

Japan

(From left to right) Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese Premier Li Qiang attend a joint press conference during a trilateral summit on May 27, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Barring major economic and political shifts, cooperation between the three countries is unlikely to notably improve, as Seoul and Tokyo's strategic interests will remain largely at odds with Beijing's.

Reviewing the China-Japan-South Korea Summit: A Long Shot Effort To Ease Tensions

An outdoor screen shows news coverage of China's military drills around Taiwan, in Beijing, China, on May 23, 2024. 

The drills suggest China will escalate its military coercion during Taiwanese President Lai's four-year term, and could be followed by more extensive drills later this year if the U.S. steps up its support for Taipei.

China's Latest Military Drills Around Taiwan Set the Tone for Cross-Strait Relations Under Lai

Peru

Peruvian President Dina Boluarte delivers an address to lawmakers in Congress on July 28, 2023.

Repeated impeachment efforts against President Boluarte indicate challenges to policymaking and, to a lesser degree, economic conditions, which will likely persist until the end of Boluarte's term in 2026.

Peru's Yearslong Political Crisis Shows Little Sign of Easing

People walk past campaign posters for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) outside the party's office in Leh, India, on May 17, 2024, during the country's ongoing general election.

While highly unlikely to threaten Modi's reelection, the lower turnout seen so far in the ongoing ballot means his party may not secure enough seats in parliament to unilaterally pass constitutional amendments during its next term.

India Election Update: The BJP Is Still Set To Win, But Low Turnout Dims Hopes for a Supermajority

Columns

On Geopolitics

The Geopolitics of Water

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Saudi Arabia

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Australia

Fiji

Indonesia

New Zealand

North Korea

Philippines

Singapore

Vietnam

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

U.S.-China Relations

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Somalia

Yemen

The United States is seeking evidence of an alleged arrangement for Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels to potentially supply weapons to al Qaeda affiliate al Shabaab in Somalia, CNN reported on June 11.

Somalia, Yemen: Houthis in Talks To Supply Weapons to Al Shabaab

Kenya's Cabinet approved plans to sell the government's share in six listed companies, Reuters reported on June 12. 

Kenya: Cabinet Approves Sale of Government Stake in Six Companies

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida hoped to have dinner with Taro Aso, the vice president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and a key party elder, on June 11, but Kishida retired early to his residence that night, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported on June 12.

Japan: Aso Ditches Kishida Meeting, a Bad Omen for September

Lebanon

Lebanon's political and militant group Hezbollah fired around 150 rockets into northern Israel in retaliation for Israel's overnight killing of Taleb Sami Abdullah, also known as Abu Taleb, the most senior Hezbollah commander killed since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023, The New York Times reported on June 12.

Israel, Lebanon: Hezbollah Launches Barrage in Northern Israel After Death of Senior Commander

The European Commission announced that it will impose provisional duties of up to 38.1% on imports of Chinese electric vehicles into the European Union, arguing "unfair subsidization" is damaging domestic manufacturers, a press release from the commission showed on June 12.

EU, China: Brussels Slaps Tariffs on Chinese EVs

Eric Ciotti, the leader of France's center-right party Les Republicains (LR), called for an alliance with Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) in upcoming snap parliamentary elections between June 30 and July 7, Le Figaro reported June 11.

France: Center-Right Republican Party Leader Ciotti Announces Deal With Far-Right National Rally

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Armenia Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said that Armenia will leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) when the authorities deem it necessary, but the timeline for this step is still undetermined, Kommersant reported June 12. 

Armenia: Prime Minister Pashinian Says Armenia Will Leave the CSTO

Science & Technology

The U.S. Biden administration is considering putting export controls on gate all-around, or GAA, semiconductor architecture, Bloomberg reported on June 11. 

U.S., China: White House Considers Expanding Semiconductor Restrictions on China

The International Energy Agency forecast that global oil production capacity will reach 113.8 million barrels per day by 2030, a "staggering" 8 million bpd above the IEA's projected 105.4 million bpd demand, according to the agency's Oil 2024 market outlook on June 12.

Global: IEA Warns of 'Staggering' Oil Surplus by 2030

Mexico

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Brazil

In Brazil, more than 100 legislators and several businesspeople organized a June 11 event to protest a provisional measure that, effective immediately, limits companies' ability to use tax credits and extinguishes cash reimbursements of presumed credits, CNN Brasil reported on June 10.

Brazil: Pushback to New Economic Policy Highlights Lula's Political Obstacles

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

In South Korea, Yoon's Desire for Supply Chains and Prestige Points to Africa

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Somalia, Yemen: Houthis in Talks To Supply Weapons to Al Shabaab

Kenya: Cabinet Approves Sale of Government Stake in Six Companies

Japan: Aso Ditches Kishida Meeting, a Bad Omen for September

Israel, Lebanon: Hezbollah Launches Barrage in Northern Israel After Death of Senior Commander

EU, China: Brussels Slaps Tariffs on Chinese EVs

France: Center-Right Republican Party Leader Ciotti Announces Deal With Far-Right National Rally

Armenia: Prime Minister Pashinian Says Armenia Will Leave the CSTO

U.S., China: White House Considers Expanding Semiconductor Restrictions on China

Global: IEA Warns of 'Staggering' Oil Surplus by 2030

Brazil: Pushback to New Economic Policy Highlights Lula's Political Obstacles

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support